Just for information, especially bearing in mind that during the summer holiday period the opinion polls always go all over the place, I have been very carefully evaluating polls during the past several weeks. I thought it worth posting a short item just to summarise what has happened.
Nearly all polls have been showing a Labour lead over the Conservatives, in terms of national voting intention, of between four and eight percentage points. The majority of these have fallen within the 4-6% range. Now, bearing in mind that the wealthier folk are more likely to be away on holiday than others, this is an interesting development that I'd say has become a trend.
Probably the main cause of this reduction in Labour's lead has been the drop in UKIP support – which I think I was perhaps the only commentator to firmly predict would happen, all along. Probably the second largest factor has been Labour's inability to put forward a credible and defensible position regarding the economy, putting out mixed messages for a while and then falling silent.
Indeed, they have become just about silent on all topics for the past several weeks, allowing others (in particular the almost hyperactive Conservatives) to dominate the big media outlets for commentary. Although Chuka Umunna was around for a while, even he has now fallen silent – possibly because of his latest gaffe as revealed by Guido.
When (if?) the shadow cabinet come back before the public gaze, they might have devised between them a new message with some resonance, which would be a considerable improvement on the efforts so far in the Miliband era. Perhaps the polling might then shift a few points back in their direction.
Personally, I think this is possible, though my gut feeling is that they have lost so much credibility over these past few years that it is unlikely to last long, especially as it is nearly always easy to unpick Labour's claims – as we have seen so many times – so they are likely to be looking for a replacement slogan/line-to-take before very long...
Friday, 9 August 2013
Colliers Wood By-election
I don't normally cover such events here: not even during my years of political blogging did I tend to cover local council by-elections outside of Medway. This time, though, I think there is something of value we can all learn from tonight's result.
This was already a Labour-held seat, as are all three in Colliers Wood ward on Merton Council, and this by-election saw a considerable increase in Labour's majority there. This is no great surprise: I worked nearby, some years ago, and soon grew to understand the nature of the Tooting/Earlsfield/Colliers Wood area. UPDATE: the results are now here.
It was generally tatty, run down, with even then (and I'm talking late 'sixties and early 'seventies here) a larger-than-average ethnic minority population, who tended not to be very bright. I could relate tales of how a few of my employer's other staff used to play on this ignorance and apparent lack of higher brain functions (anyone meeting me might like to prompt me with the words 'engine' and 'coke' for details) but the point was that Tooting was, even then, hardly what one might call 'ethnically English' any more.
This, on top of an area of obvious bottom-end social nature, was always going to make it much more Labour-friendly than anything else – indeed, for the reasons we know so well today, it became Labour-dependent. The welfare handouts were the bribe that ensured party loyalty then, and now.
If one looks around the area in Google Street View, it becomes glaringly obvious that the considerable majority of people captured by Google's cameras are of the 'ethnic minority' type: even the facial blurring cannot disguise that fact. I have just spent a half hour or so checking...
If one looks at the map of the Merton Council area, one sees a clear divide between the Mitcham/Tooting part of the borough and the Wimbledon/Raynes Park area, with some mixed places in between and on the fringes (e.g. Abbey, Dundonald and St Helier).
Although the picture is somewhat clouded by the likes of the Merton Park Residents members and the Merton Coalition (which seems to have let a couple of UKIP folk in through the back door, as they form only a minor part of that group), the old Mitcham/Morden and Wimbledon divide is very clear.
It is therefore no surprise to find that the largest group on the Council nowadays is Labour – though their 27 members aren't that much more than the Conservatives' 21. As there are 59 seats, this means that neither party has an overall majority, by the way.
If one treats this as an example of how ignorance and State dependency swing voting – and governance – in a particular direction, then it becomes easy to realise why government at all levels has become less truly representative of the spirit of our nation, and has (on one side) willingly embraced all that this means and (on the other side of the political divide) compelled at least partial compliance with that agenda in order to have the ability to try to gently steer us back onto a more sensible course.
This is of course David Cameron's dilemma; and while immigration continues to flood our nation (though at a slower rate these days) and the ethnic minority population continues to have a significantly higher birth rate that the truly indigenous sector of the population, the balance will inevitably and inexorably tip ever further in Labour's direction – undeservedly and unrepresentative of the real Britain. Labour's plan all along was to exclude the Conservatives from government – or, failing that, to force them to become like Labour in order to survive politically..
In this, they have succeeded; and until a sufficiently large proportion of Britain's current (and future) population matures politically, this situation will not materially change.
Tonight's by-election result in Colliers Wood provides an alarm call to us all of the unnatural bias that has been infecting our system of governance for decades and even now continues to escalate. This is how we lose our nation, unless we wake up to what has been going on and find a way to combat it.
That isn't going to be easy, but it must be done or we lose Britain as we know it!
This was already a Labour-held seat, as are all three in Colliers Wood ward on Merton Council, and this by-election saw a considerable increase in Labour's majority there. This is no great surprise: I worked nearby, some years ago, and soon grew to understand the nature of the Tooting/Earlsfield/Colliers Wood area. UPDATE: the results are now here.
It was generally tatty, run down, with even then (and I'm talking late 'sixties and early 'seventies here) a larger-than-average ethnic minority population, who tended not to be very bright. I could relate tales of how a few of my employer's other staff used to play on this ignorance and apparent lack of higher brain functions (anyone meeting me might like to prompt me with the words 'engine' and 'coke' for details) but the point was that Tooting was, even then, hardly what one might call 'ethnically English' any more.
This, on top of an area of obvious bottom-end social nature, was always going to make it much more Labour-friendly than anything else – indeed, for the reasons we know so well today, it became Labour-dependent. The welfare handouts were the bribe that ensured party loyalty then, and now.
If one looks around the area in Google Street View, it becomes glaringly obvious that the considerable majority of people captured by Google's cameras are of the 'ethnic minority' type: even the facial blurring cannot disguise that fact. I have just spent a half hour or so checking...
If one looks at the map of the Merton Council area, one sees a clear divide between the Mitcham/Tooting part of the borough and the Wimbledon/Raynes Park area, with some mixed places in between and on the fringes (e.g. Abbey, Dundonald and St Helier).
Although the picture is somewhat clouded by the likes of the Merton Park Residents members and the Merton Coalition (which seems to have let a couple of UKIP folk in through the back door, as they form only a minor part of that group), the old Mitcham/Morden and Wimbledon divide is very clear.
It is therefore no surprise to find that the largest group on the Council nowadays is Labour – though their 27 members aren't that much more than the Conservatives' 21. As there are 59 seats, this means that neither party has an overall majority, by the way.
If one treats this as an example of how ignorance and State dependency swing voting – and governance – in a particular direction, then it becomes easy to realise why government at all levels has become less truly representative of the spirit of our nation, and has (on one side) willingly embraced all that this means and (on the other side of the political divide) compelled at least partial compliance with that agenda in order to have the ability to try to gently steer us back onto a more sensible course.
This is of course David Cameron's dilemma; and while immigration continues to flood our nation (though at a slower rate these days) and the ethnic minority population continues to have a significantly higher birth rate that the truly indigenous sector of the population, the balance will inevitably and inexorably tip ever further in Labour's direction – undeservedly and unrepresentative of the real Britain. Labour's plan all along was to exclude the Conservatives from government – or, failing that, to force them to become like Labour in order to survive politically..
In this, they have succeeded; and until a sufficiently large proportion of Britain's current (and future) population matures politically, this situation will not materially change.
Tonight's by-election result in Colliers Wood provides an alarm call to us all of the unnatural bias that has been infecting our system of governance for decades and even now continues to escalate. This is how we lose our nation, unless we wake up to what has been going on and find a way to combat it.
That isn't going to be easy, but it must be done or we lose Britain as we know it!
Thursday, 8 August 2013
Oxygène Part 2
Just about everone and his dog remembers (or, in the case of the dogs, was told by their owner) that Oxygène part 4 was the lead track off that 1977 project album by Jean Michel Jarre. They are correct, and it was the right track to be released as a single.
However, the most beautiful track was always part 2; and although Jarre has since composed and performed numerous other beautiful pieces, along with many stark and dramatic, sometimes even soulful, occasionally downright joyous items, nothing can detract from this superb and heartstring-gripping piece.
Jarre even had to devise a special method for playing this particular track, which I have never seen used by anyone elsewhere, ever. You'll see it in his live performances of this part, an example of which I plan to feature here soon (it was in the Monaco concert, I mention in case you'd like to check it out before then).
You just need to remember to keep breathing that wonderful oxygen while listening, even when it has become so easy to forget to do so...
However, the most beautiful track was always part 2; and although Jarre has since composed and performed numerous other beautiful pieces, along with many stark and dramatic, sometimes even soulful, occasionally downright joyous items, nothing can detract from this superb and heartstring-gripping piece.
Jarre even had to devise a special method for playing this particular track, which I have never seen used by anyone elsewhere, ever. You'll see it in his live performances of this part, an example of which I plan to feature here soon (it was in the Monaco concert, I mention in case you'd like to check it out before then).
You just need to remember to keep breathing that wonderful oxygen while listening, even when it has become so easy to forget to do so...
Wednesday, 7 August 2013
Poker Face – Live Action
This really is brilliant! These four ladies, known as Danceroid, have got the Poker Face motion off to perfection, or near enough. Even the picking-up routine near the end is done so well and without apparent effort that it is throughout a superb emulation of the delightful original.
Incidentally, this is a good reminder that all these things we see (apart from the likes of instant costume changes, that is) are physically possible for humans, and are based entirely on physics and bone movements. For anyone who thought it was artificial and mere fantasy, here's yet more proof that it is all realistic.
Fashion note: I think their thigh-highs must have come from CUL's stock...
Incidentally, this is a good reminder that all these things we see (apart from the likes of instant costume changes, that is) are physically possible for humans, and are based entirely on physics and bone movements. For anyone who thought it was artificial and mere fantasy, here's yet more proof that it is all realistic.
Fashion note: I think their thigh-highs must have come from CUL's stock...
Thousands of Cherry Trees
That's what KuroUsa-P's famous Vocaloid (Miku and others following) song Senbonzakura means, and it is a strange but compelling song too. Here are the English lyrics – but I suggest you read those after hearing this masterful interpretation of the excellent tune on guitars (three parts plus percussive effects) by one Shouba Zennya...
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