Wednesday, 19 April 2017

Snap Election

I had been wondering for some time just how much longer Prime Minister Theresa May could put off seeking a snap General Election in the wake of all the derailing threats that other parties were making in the Commons, more especially in the Lords, and elsewhere in the country regarding the Brexit process. Although I wasn't exactly expecting it to happen, I had been watching daily for signs of a change of heart from the PM's previous position.

It has now happened, in a clear-cut case of cause-and-effect. If the others had not behaved as they did (and still are) then this would not have become necessary. It is as simply and correctly stated as that. The election will be held on 8 June, just seven weeks from tomorrow.

Because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, this has necessitated a Motion to be voted on in the House of Commons, and Royal assent after that. The first hurdle was completed a few hours ago as I write this, with well over 500 MPs agreeing to the General Election, and just 13 (nine of them Labour) MPs voting against. This comfortably exceeds the requirement of at least 2/3 of the full House assenting – the minimum thus being 434 out of the 650.

The general assumption is that the Conservatives will hugely increase their majority, which was just 12 seats after the previous election. I believe top psephologist Michael Thrasher (of Thrasher & Rallings fame) anticipates an overall majority of something like 120 or so. My own estimate, just for the record, is 165 plus-or-minus 9% of that figure: in effect, between 150 and 180.

A new spanner in the works, though – if it goes ahead – is a move to create an 'unholy alliance' of main opposition parties (Labour Lib Dems, SNP, perhaps Green) to field just one cross-party candidate in each target Conservative seat, so that all the non-Conservative votes will (they think) go to that candidate. As many Conservative MPs were elected with less than 50% of the actual vote, this suggests that the one significant opponent could take the seat, ultimately depriving Mrs May of an overall majority.

Thus goes the theory, demonstrating one-dimensional thinking in the process. Of course we can ignore fringe candidates like the perennial 'Save the NHS' and others of a similar nature, as well as the likes of TUSC and the always-entertaining Official Monster Raving Looney participants. This is nitty-gritty stuff. On the other hand, there is also UKIP, but their influence is waning.

If this scheme should go ahead, it makes two fatal errors: (1) that the electorate will vote the same way they did last time, or in the current polls, polarised into voting for any candidate who is not-Conservative regardless of party designation. The news is that they will not: people are already declaring wholesale that they will vote Conservative this time. Number (2) is the same for UKIP voters from last time and who have stated so to pollsters: they too are switching in large numbers to the Blue candidate.

Thus such an approach seems likely (I think certain) to fail; and if anything it will probably result in Mrs May gaining an even larger overall majority than my seemingly optimistic estimate. I say 'estimate' because – as those who have followed my prediction will know by now – I don't make any firm predictions until I know who is on the ballot paper, the day the Statements of Persons Nominated are published.

That is how I have been able to be so devastatingly accurate in the past…

Thursday, 6 April 2017

Reckless Abandon

The news today is that Mark Reckless – once upon a time Conservative MP for near-to-me Rochester & Strood constituency, who then switched party to UKIP – has now resigned from that party too. Just like his friend of many years, Douglas Carswell MP, he is now sitting as an Independent, though he is no longer an MP but a member of the Welsh Assembly.

Somewhat like the European Parliament, Assembly Members (AMs) can sit with a particular political grouping if they wish, and if they are accepted, and it appears that Mark R. will be sitting with the Conservative Group in that structure. As far as I am aware, he has not re-joined his original party, and I don't think they would want him – at least not unless and until he has demonstrated true loyalty to them this time, I can well imagine.

This is quite possibly what this 'grouping' move is intended to demonstrate over time, in the hope that he will be invited back in a year or two. It could be that he wants to be an MP again, and sees no chance of that happening if he had stayed within UKIP. Not only was he unlikely to be selected as a candidate (because he was not much liked within that party) but recent election results – including the by-election a few weeks ago where their leader Paul Nuttall stood and failed to take the seat, carrying on the tradition of his predecessor – show that the party is unable to win seats.

With opinion poll figures for UKIP showing a downward trend for a long time now, and vote share in by-elections dropping hugely, the writing was on the wall: there is seemingly no electoral future in UKIP. This surely at least partly explains why both Douglas and Mark have now left the party, and at this specific time. The official line is that with the triggering of Article 50, their work within UKIP is now complete. It's plausible, though I am sceptical.

That event did provide a convenient excuse on the occasion of this second resignation – but it does not account for the timing of the Carswell departure, which was a little before that date, in a kind of 'no man's land' on the political calendar – and the two departures must be viewed together, just as their both joining UKIP was staggered just weeks apart, and of course because of their long friendship.

Overall, I don't see today's change making much difference to anyone outside Wales, and probably very little change there either. I shall keep a weather eye on what develops over time; but that, I think, is all it warrants.

Saturday, 25 March 2017

All's Well That's Carswell – or is it?

News today that Douglas Carswell – the original Conservative sitting-MP defector to UKIP – has left that party comes as little surprise: pundits and commentators have been expecting it for some time. He will now sit as an Independent.

Thus UKIP, which has never has had one of its own people elected to the House of Commons, has gone from no MPs to one (defector), and then to two with the second defection by Mark Reckless shortly after, then back to one a mere six months later, and now zero again, less than two years after the last General Election.

The timing of this move is interesting, coming as it does at a slightly odd time. Douglas states his reason as being the completion of the mission to leave the EU – but we haven't yet done so. Article 50 is to be triggered just four days from now, so if that was the reason why didn't he at least wait until then? The Referendum was held months ago, so that wasn't the cause either.

Apparently he has been liaising with senior Conservatives with the apparent aiming of rejoining his former party. I don't think that would go down well among the party's rank and file membership, and is something that I'd recommend be seriously pursued.

ANother ingredient in the mix is the possible imminent launch of UKIP big sponsor Arron Banks' new party, provisionally called the Patriotic Alliance. The feeling I get with that, though, is that he might be even less welcome there than back in the Conservative fold. I could be wrong.

In recent days, though, yet another movement has surfaced: this appears to be some kind of 'New UKIP'. While that is probably a dead-end route (the analogy of stopping digging when you're already in a hole of your own making springs to mind) it might provide a new home for Douglas C. I have no idea if that is even on his radar, but as mere speculation it is worth airing as one of the possibilities.

Behind all of this, though, I suspect is the realisation that UKIP – which I have long stated is a dead end – is dying, as polls and by-elections have been clearly showing. Here's Britain Elects' poll-of-polls graph covering the period since the May 2015 General Election…



The UKIP polling support is clearly moribund, with the resurgent Liberal Democrats looking set to overtake them shortly. This has been borne out in a large number of by-election results in recent months, mostly council seats but still telling a strong story. UKIP votes have been slashed from the previous election in many of the contested seats, down to between a third and a half of their former vote share.

I watch these closely, and every week (Thursday night & Friday morning) you'll find the results with my comments re-tweeted on my Twitter timeline. The writing is now very clearly on the wall – and perhaps this is indeed the best time to get out and make oneself nominally available to any suitably-positioned new movement that could do with having on board an established political figure to give it some weight.

That could well be the calculation at work here.

Tuesday, 14 March 2017

No More Kipping

The creation of a new political party by Arron Banks – long anticipated by some including myself (as I have mentioned before) – seems to have taken a step forward today, with the suspension of Mr Banks from UKIP. This was (he says) because of something he recently said about UKIP.

Now, this is a promising move, if it is handled in the right way. I have been saying (and showing) for some time that UKIP was always a dead end – and it has been proven true. I'd venture to suggest that a considerable majority of the electorate also now realise this.

Despite the boost given to them by certain pundits, movers & shakers, and being gifted votes as a protest party, their core vote was usually in single figures (I estimate 6% to 8% tops) as has been shown consistently in opinion polls and in particular in more recent actual elections, whether council or parliamentary. Note that each party has a core vote that will probably never change, plus other more fluid 'floating' votes, so the core forms just part of the polling/voting figure.

Most notably, the UKIP vote has in the majority of cases dropped hugely since the previous election in that seat, typically down to just a third to a half of the percentage vote they had the last time. I watch this every week, and tweet all the results, so they can be found on my Twitter feed.

So: what about this new party, then? I'd welcome it, because it is about time that the deadwood were to be cleared out from our nation's political scene – and that means Labour and the Greens, along with TUSC, as well as UKIP. None of them offers any real value in twenty-first century politics.

So far there are two problems with what has emerged today: Arron Banks seems to be thinking of it as a Mark Two version of UKIP, which would be the wrong approach. It has to be something new and fresh, not modelled on what has gone before, otherwise it will almost certainly mutate over a few years into being in the same situation as UKIP is today, and will never generate sufficient public confidence to become viable. They'll prefer the devil they already know.

The second issue is the likelihood of Nigel Farage being pushed to be its leader. Again, this will lead to the same kinds of difficulties that UKIP had for years in that it will become the Nigel Show all over again – a 'cult of personality'. That is not what is needed. Hopefully Farage's Trump association will lead to a full-time occupation on that side of the Atlantic, which will thus help save the new venture here if it should go ahead.

I wish such a new party well, especially if it does result in the dross vanishing from the scene. It could (and should) be much healthier for British politics, both nationally and (over a longer period) locally too. It just needs to be done right, from the launch onward, and all should be set fair to raise the bar hugely over the next few years.

Saturday, 4 March 2017

Weaponising

I have touched on this previously, here and elsewhere, in the context of Labour Motions to Council – but it is much broader than that. This is the matter of weaponising an issue – or even a non-issue that is manufactured into a weapon that can be used to raise the party's profile and/or support, or be aimed against their political opponents, or (ideally) all of those!

It isn't only Labour that do this: the entirety of the Green party's existence is dependent upon weaponising environmental matters (including a lot of pseudo-science and other fakery) in order to impose their Communist-style policies of tax-and-regulation (i.e. theft and oppression) on us all.

This, though, is why the most visible aspects of Labour's activities are all over the place – what I call 'grasshopper politics' – as the only topics that matter to them are those that play to their lust for power and ways of achieving that. Okay, sometimes they have to 'play the game' and express a view on other matters (though they usually still play politics with them where possible) but with little enthusiasm.

One place you can always depend on finding Labour activists, including elected members, is on marches and similar – including today's NHS-supporting rally in London. Some of our local Labour councillors actually boasted that they would be there, as they always do. Hardly surprising, of course, as this is the most heavily weaponised issue in Britain today, even though Labour's position is entirely dependent upon deception and outright dishonesty.

Equally unsurprising is that this event was called and organised by one of the big trades unions, and in particular by its General Secretary – Dave Prentis of Unison. There is lots I could write about that, but it's all public knowledge nowadays and much more widely known than when I started discussing the big union 'barons' a few years ago, when few folk realised just how much the whole movement had already been subverted to Communist manipulations.

The lesson from all of this, though, is to watch what they do, and how every new subject that comes seemingly out of the blue is used by the Lefties in exactly the same manner as their traditional 'weaponised' topics, including groups of people – at least while they are of use to Labour et al.

Once upon a time that included blue collar workers, but they have generally outlived their usefulness so were dropped by Blair, and that changed situation maintained within the Labour leadership to this very day, as has been widely reported.

It is thus instructive to become aware of how public opinion and the political landscape are being manipulated entirely to serve party political ends, and have nothing to do with serving the public interest. After all, with so much attention being concentrated on minor issues such as Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (a recent 'big issue' with Labour all around the country) it means that big, important matters are being sidelined by that party.

I know from my own experience as an elected member on a Council, and from my decades in the Civil Service and other sources/inputs, just how little the Left serve the nation's interests and how much they try to block and generally oppose those of us who did and those who still do, if it serves their own purposes.

They always but ALWAYS put their own interests first, even if they are very clever at disguising that fact.

Social Engineering Revisited

This post augments the one I wrote on this topic a few weeks ago, and re-iterates part of that post, leading onto a third part soon...

One oddity in my locality is a council ward currently called Rochester East. Part of this was formerly the smaller ward of Troy Town, and it is there that the uncharacteristic proliferation of social housing is to be found. This view from Google Maps shows where much of this is situated.

The main chunks are the two paired long blocks running between Cossack Street and Princes Street (Glovers Mill and Burritt Mews) and the 'chunky' blocks between them (Hussar House and Lancer House), also much of John Street and Hoopers Road. There are a lot of Labour voters living in those places, unsurprisingly when one looks at their nature and pays attention when passing through – which I have done many times.

The origin of all this goes back primarily to the 1980s when the then council leadership (Labour at the time) arranged for all this to be built, in order to skew the demographics of what was an essentially Conservative-supporting area. It does seem very much out of place in that part of the world – but it did work.It gave Labour a permanent and highly strategic foothold in urban Rochester.

When I was first elected to Medway Council nearly seventeen years ago, Troy Town was indeed represented by Labour councillors, even though other parts of Rochester were Conservative. Now, it wasn't always quite as clear-cut as that, for historic reasons from before I moved to Kent and which I have never been able to get to the heart of dependably, only conflicting anecdotal material being offered; so I am now sticking with the period I know personally.

Anyway, even with ward boundary changes a few years after the Unitary Authority came into being, what then became part of Rochester East ward has consistently swung it for Labour, even when other seats they held in the wider Rochester & Strood parliamentary constituency area came and went (in Strood North and Strood South wards, for example) – and they are now the only two Labour-held seats out of the twenty-two in that constituency.

That is highly significant. Without the social engineering of some three decades ago, they wouldn't even have those two council seats. The demographic slant also helped them at parliamentary election level, though never enough to make an actual switch: it was only Tony Blair winning (and John Major losing) in 1997 that ensured that the Medway area had three Labour Members of Parliament from that time.

Actually, it is just two-and-a-half MPs, as one of the constituencies (Chatham & Aylesford) was and is only half in the Medway council area.

Anyway, this does show what goes on in politics and why it is done (because it works!) Any party can do this when it has the power to do so; but it is only Labour who drag whole areas downward for their own power-lust purposes, as is of course a very old story nationally. I think the practice first came to public attention back in the mid 'sixties, though I was too young at the time to fully appreciate what was going on.

The modern-day context is Labour's 'Refugees welcome' initiative, which leads into a whole new story for which the background information in this post will aid understanding. It is, though, a separate story, which I intend to tackle here soon...

Saturday, 18 February 2017

Own Goal from Left Field

The political Left across the Atlantic are doing the Right a lot of favours – unintentionally, of course. In the past day or so alone, we have seen...
  1. Donald Trump's approval rating continue to climb, and is now at 55%. Some of this was going to happen anyway, but the Left are helping it along;
  2. More and more students are turning to the Right when they witness what the lefties are doing at their place of learning, sometimes aided by the staff;
  3. Even Ivanka Trump's fashion line has shot up the Amazon sales chart since the likes of Nordstrom stopped stocking her garments, ironically stated to be on the basis of falling sales but almost certainly politically motivated. Their loss!
The trends are now feeling fairly solid, as there have been strong indications of this nature of shift for some time, and firming-up now, post inauguration.

Meanwhile, over here it looks like Brexit voters are as numerous and as determined as ever, now joined by a number of former Remain voters.

The Left's narrative is trying (unsuccessfully) to convince us that the opposite is happening, i.e. Leave voters are 'having doubts' about the way they voted, and suchlike. They even wheeled out 'Phoney Tony' Blair to speak at length yesterday – or perhaps he wheeled himself out, it's hard to tell – which event was covered hugely in certain big TV media here in the UK.

Few are being fooled by any of this, except their own side, which therefore makes no noticeable difference to the overall picture. They are just preaching to the choir.

In reality, it's just another 'own goal'.

Sunday, 12 February 2017

How the Left Operates

From another place, then copied elsewhere (possibly several times), so I don't have its original source to which I can link – therefore have instead copied the text to here.

Although this is specifically about the American Democrat Party, albeit with references to others, I think anyone reading this who has been involved with politics –  and especially with Leftist parties and movements – will recognise much if not all of this. I certainly do, and have for years. It is not quite so secret nowadays, I'd say, despite their best efforts!

It's near-enough universal on that side of the political divide, though admittedly sometimes it can be very well camouflaged...


Twelve Secret Strategies The Democrat Party Use To Gain Power And Maintain Control

  1. The Democrat Party Must… Be seen to be the supporter of minorities to divide the community so the Democrat Party can  conquer. Create political labels that divide the community into groups or voter blocks based on. e.g. multiculturalism,  feminism, minorities, race, sexuality etc.
  2. The Democrat Party Must… Demonize and promote hatred towards Christians, Jews, Conservatives, white men and make them out to be the evil, intolerant Common Enemy of their selected minority groups.
  3. The Democrat Party Must… Manipulate and persuade minorities or anyone of use they are victims, mistreated, disenfranchised and even hated by the evil, intolerant Common Enemy, despite the fact it's a complete lie.
  4. The Democrat Party Must… Present itself as the great savior and protector of these minority victim groups from the evil and intolerant Common Enemy.
  5. The Democrat Party Must… Bribe and manipulate the minorities and low information voters with welfare. Use class warfare to attack informed voters and make them out to be evil, white privileged, uncaring Rich Capitalists Pigs. Heavily tax those who will never support you to buy the votes of those who don't know any better.
  6. The Democrat Party Must… Gradually take away the personal freedoms, including freedom of speech from the people and say it's in the interest of protecting poor, vulnerable minorities and the downtrodden victims of the evil intolerant Common Enemy.
  7. The Democrat Party Must… Use Political Correctness as a weapon to police speech, shut down debate and attack the ideas of the Common Enemy as evil and intolerant e.g. racists, bigots, homophobes etc.
  8. The Democrat Party Must… Control the Mainstream Media, ensure journalists loyalty is to the Leftist Socialist Movement and The Democrat Party, ensure the media rewrite history that could hurt the Democrat Party (Marxism, Communism, Socialism etc), control the propaganda feed to the public and use the media as an army of Attack Dogs against the evil, intolerant Common Enemy.
  9. The Democrat Party Must… Control the education system through the Union, to indoctrinate the children to think like a leftist, use Nazi-style strategies to brainwash the children to hate Capitalism and mistrust the evil, uncaring, intolerant Common Enemy.
  10. The Democrat Party Must… Paint any resistance to the Democrat Party's left-wing Socialist policies by the Common Enemy as evil and intolerance. e.g. uncaring, racists, hate speech, angry white man, homophobes, behind the times etc.
  11. The Democrat Party Must… Create a population of 51% or more Minorities victim groups by promoting multiculturalism and diversity to divide the people and dilute the American culture. However, diversity of thought is not allowed; the Democrat Party, the media, its surrogates, supporters etc must attack diversity of thought, speech and opinion as racist, bigotry, intolerance, hate speech, climate deniers, angry white men etc.
  12. The Democrat Party Must… Gain power and control of all levels of society by hand picking loyal radical Leftists and put them in key positions of power in local/state/federal bureaucracies, unions, military, healthcare, education, media, entertainment, special interest groups and the courts system.

Did you know Hitler was a progressive Socialist?

Hitler used these very same ruthless, manipulative strategies and propaganda tactics to gain power and maintain control over the German People! Hitler's Nazi Party was named "National Socialist German Workers Party."

The Democrat Party and their army of protectors/attack dogs in the Marxist mainstream media use these ruthless strategies to manipulate the people, gain power, protect their rigged, corrupt, self-serving system and shut down all opposition.

Anyone who dares speaks out against these radical leftists is to be attacked and have their credibility destroyed by the Democrat Party and their army of attack dogs in the Marxist mainstream media.

Socialism Is EVIL & The People Are Fighting Back!

The scary consequences of a state-run & controlled Socialist (Brainwashing Propaganda) education system are on full display.

Their lack of tolerance for other people's opinions and choices is out there for the entire world to see.

History shows us how these Brainwashed Marxist / Socialist zombies have been responsible for some of the most horrific acts against their fellow human beings in the history of the world.

In the last 100 years Socialist governments (blindly supported by their brainwashed zombies) like Hitlers Nazi's, USSR (The Soviet Union), China, North Korea, Cuba, Cambodia, Vietnam, Syria and the list sadly goes on - are responsible for the Murder of over 100 million people, people murdered by their OWN socialist governments for daring to have a different opinion from their Socialist Masters.

Apparently, it's not good for your health to disagree with your (NOT SO) friendly, tolerant Socialist.

The Democrat Party Mission: - Don't let the truth, honesty, integrity, ethics or even the law stand in the way of complete power and control over the people!!!

In short… Divide the community, so we The Democrat “Marxist” Party can conquer!

Thursday, 9 February 2017

Fake Accusations Don't Work, Big Media!


We are now in a very powerful era where the corrupt, the manipulators and the rest of the global deceivers – including much of the big media – no longer have the absolute control that they had been so close to achieving.
Trump, Brexit, consequent shifts across Europe, and falling trust in the mainstream media – all of these and more have set alarm bells ringing in the globalists' collective minds.

In desperation, they are re-grouping and re-thinking their strategy, meanwhile pulling out all the stops to try to halt (or at least slow) the currently ongoing dissipation of their power and influence.

One of those desperate moves was their coordinated launch of the smear term 'fake news' to attempt to discredit real facts while they continued to purvey 'good facts' i.e. pseudo-facts that can be presented with seeming credibility but in pursuit of a propaganda exercise.
Anyone who has watched the Babylon 5 episode "The Deconstruction of Falling Stars" will already be familiar with those two terms.
Unfortunately for its instigators, the likes of Donald Trump, Milo Yiannopoulos and Paul Joseph Watson – among others – turned it around by exposing much of the big media themselves as the originators of genuinely fake news, not their intended targets.

Thus we now have the interesting spectacle of the left-leaning Washington Post already seeking to 'retire' that expression – only because it now works against the dishonest, rather than for it as was intended, of course. One word in their Facebook link's strapline gives the game away: "Conservative" – that's the real reason for this move.

I wonder what they'll all devise next...

Sunday, 15 January 2017

How to 'Jezz' It Up – or not!

Labour party leader Jeremy 'Jezza' Corbyn has been almost invisible for several weeks as I write this, reappearing just a day or so ago with what at least one of his spokesmen has suggested is to be a 'Trump-style' re-launch. This immediately struck me as another big step on the road to Labour's seemingly inevitable oblivion, at least as a credible political party seeking election to national government.

His (or his aides') thinking has probably been along the lines of: "It obviously worked for Trump, so those same lines should do it for me [or "him"] too!"

Wrong! The USA has been suffering all manner of issues during the Obama years, some of which came to wide public realisation and understanding during the second such term. It has certainly become widespread knowledge during the last couple of years or so, thanks to trusted sources outside the mainstream media – sources such as Drudge Report, Breitbart and of course InfoWars & Prison Planet.

Also the alleged attempted rigging of the presidential election in favour of Hillary Clinton has been widely reported on those and other sites, as have other related matters.

Thus Trump's messages to the voters of America were not only appropriate, but resonated with them He is also very much non-Establishment, which is something else the voters lapped up, as they were sick of being conned by the Establishment – which in the States is more-or-less a two-headed beast, near enough running both significant political parties there.

To transfer those same messages (nearly verbatim) into our political arena just doesn't work, as the quoted snippets in this piece illustrate. The full speech is a lot more telling, though I haven't (so far) found a video of it online.

It doesn't take a genius to see why those Trump-like lines don't work when transplanted to our country and even to our politics. Oh yes, we too have an Establishment, and their aims, objectives and methods are at least similar to those in the USA in some regards. However, although they are supporting the Left primarily, exactly as in the States, they are also trying to control the Right – with very mixed success.

Thus this particular re-launch seems almost certain to backfire, as is discussed here.

Meanwhile, Labour's fortunes are sinking, not only in opinion polls but also in by-election results and especially regarding council seats. The Liberal Democrats are making hay while the sunshine switches away from Labour, even taking seats in Labour heartlands via huge swings.

Here's one such result from a council by-election just this past week...

Sandhill (Sunderland) result, council by-election on 12-01-2017:

LDEM: 45.0% (+41.5)
LAB: 25.0% (-29.9)
UKIP: 18.7% (-7.2)
CON: 10.0% (-5.7)
GRN: 1.3% (+1.3)

Just look at the size of that swing away from (mainly) Labour to the Lib Dems! Sunderland is, unsurprisingly, a traditional Labour heartland – but perhaps no longer.

This and other results over the past year might well be giving an indication that Labour's seat losses in the next General Election could be even more severe than commentators and psephologists have already been saying, and closer to my own prediction (which I originally made nearly a year ago, and haven't changed) of 120 to 130 Labour seats come May 2020.