Further to the Corbyn/Labour situation, this short item at Political Betting shows how dire things already are. Bearing in mind that it was the public who overwhelmingly selected Corbyn to be the new party leader, not Labour MPs, and it is that same pool of people who are polled for both leader approval polling and voting intention surveys, this makes it even worse than could otherwise have been the case. That initial broad support in August/September is no longer there.
Though, as it
says at the linked post, "things can happen", and there is a long time to go until
the next scheduled General Election in May 2020, the conclusion at the end is
unambiguous: another Conservative majority seems almost certain.
In fact, it might not work out that way, but unless there is a drastic
change to Labour, they at least look set to become either the third or
possibly even fourth largest party group in the House of Commons after that election.
It is unlikely that Labour will regain any of their
former seats in Scotland, which is a crucial factor; indeed the SNP might well take the remaining
three seats north of the border, making them possibly the third largest
group in the Commons, with UKIP (if they are still around by then)
gaining a large number of frankly undeserved seats via the back door, as
the only remaining perceived to be non-establishment Britain-wide
I hear that UKIP are doing particularly well in Wales at
the moment, so watch out for signs of this growing over the months and
years to come. I personally think that their tactics there will continue to bring dividends for a while, but will falter after next May if they can't turn that into seats anywhere, or in subsequent years as more and more council seats in Wales come up for re-election.
An alternative scenario – and the one I have been
anticipating for a while now as being the more likely, despite what some insiders are saying right now – is an SDP-like split and a new party
being formed. My thinking is that this is most likely to occur soon
after next May's council and police & crime commissioner elections
if (as expected) Labour do at all badly.
This new party would
probably hold most of the seats that the immediate defection takes with
it, come May 2020, and could pick up a number of the remaining Labour
MPs' seats as well, reducing the latter group to a very small number of members.
This would be a healthy thing for British politics, both national and
local, as again a Communist totalitarian-tendency movement will be
marginalised, just as has always happened in the past – and that is what they are looking set to become exclusively.
whole of Labour is essentially 'mild Marxist', tempered and slowed by
its long-standing Fabian practices, but has generally been manageable
and has never quite completely wrecked our nation – though it has been
close once or twice, including just a very few years ago. A Corbyn-led (and, essentially, selected) set of Labour-labelled candidates is a very different proposition!
Interestingly, all of what has been happening with Labour has been
more-or-less inevitable from the moment the Conservatives formed a
coalition with the Liberal Democrats, back in May 2010.
few people around these parts might remember that I have been smiling as
I told them in years gone by something of what I expected to follow
over the period ahead; and most of that has now panned out – actually
slightly better than I had predicted back then.
It was so easy to
predict, simply because of the underlying nature of the Labour party,
its rules, and both its higher echelons and the ordinary and Union-based members
– and there is much more yet to come, equally predictable!