Boris Looking Good

Not only was London mayor Boris Johnson's new Routemaster-style 'bus mobbed today (photo from Guido's office), it was so popular an idea, but the man himself is riding high with the punters.

This early afternoon's 'snapshot' at SMarkets (simple view as I don't understand what all that detailed stuff means) suggests that betting on Ken Livingstone would return more twice as much if he were to win in May's London mayoralty election as betting on Boris would if he wins.

Obviously it's changing by the moment, but not by much during the minutes I watched it: up a little one moment, back down again the next...

Now, I am no expert, but that seems fairly convincing to me, though the obvious no-hopers also listed are set to pay whopping amounts by comparison, which a casual browser might misinterpret as a close contest between the two main candidates. It's the difference between relative and absolute values, I suppose.

Note that this was before the Ken tax avoidance story had a chance to make a significant impact, as most people didn't find out about it until the evening.

The above at SMarkets is consistent with other indicators that suggest that, no matter what Ken and his team do from now on, he has done himself enough damage that it will be virtually impossible for him to take the mayoralty back this year.

Okay, anything can happen in this game, and I am not yet counting chickens (though the betting markets tend to be among the best indicators around), but it's consistently looking like a solid Boris win is very probable.