UKIP Leadership Change

Lord Pearson is standing down as UKIP party leader after just a year, as Iain Dale and Conservative Home seem to be the first to report in "print".

I can understand his reasons, especially the part about "not being cut out for party politics".

I have long talked about the shapes of pegs and holes, as that old saying goes, and have publicly acknowledged my own limitations, so I can readily appreciate his own admission.

Although we all like to stretch ourselves sometimes, it is usually wise not to put oneself into (or allow oneself to be pushed into) an unsuitable job, and just as wise to leave such a job after trying it out and only then discovering that one is not really suited to it after all.

In Lord Pearson's case, he has made a few decisions that, though well intentioned, did not go down happily with large chunks of the party. Perhaps the most notable was standing down UKIP candidates who faced a Eurosceptic front-runner in the recent General Election. Our own Mark Reckless was one such, where the UKIP candidate withdrew from the election in order not to divide the Eurosceptic vote and possibly lose the seat to a pro-EU candidate.

The motivation was sound, and entirely consistent with UKIP's stated aims, but (as I have been told by UKIP activists) was not what the bulk of the party would have wanted, and indeed they were not at all pleased at this.

The problem for UKIP now is to get themselves a replacement leader, ideally by Lord Pearson's date of departure which is just two weeks or so from today's announcement, on 2 September. That almost certainly cannot be done (though I am not familiar with their process for this) so they look set to have a period without an actual leader, just as Labour are doing right now.

In fact, the two parties' leaderless-ness could overlap by three weeks or so, as Labour's new leader won't be elected until 25 September. I understand that an interim leader will be chosen at UKIP's annual conference next month.

Fortunately, as UKIP has no MPs, being without a proper party leader won't impact the new parliamentary term in any way, whereas Labour really do need an official "leader" to face the Prime Minister at PMQs and for other activities in the House.

Who will replace the good Lord, though? Iain Dale doesn't think Nigel Farage will be up for it this time, because that aeroplane crash has left him less than fit for such a demanding rôle – but I am not so sure. For a start, there is (despite what Pearson says about talent in the party) no-one else with the charisma of Farage, unless they've been keeping him or her very well hidden. The pressure will be on Farage, from inside the party, to become its leader again.

I honestly can't see anyone else being considered suitable. The party suffered from having a rather "wet" leader before (Roger Knapman) and will not wish to repeat that error: it would send them back into the wilderness with no significant media coverage. I think it will have to be Farage as no-one else has made a significant impact or public "connect", though he is patchy on the latter ability.

UPDATES: it looks like I was closer to the reality than Mr Dale on this occasion: Nigel Farage will stand if he is well enough (which, by the UKIP conference, he could well be). Autonomous Mind believes it would be the party's "death knell" if he were to become the leader again, though.

Of course, if the party is content to establish something of a trend of having former Conservatives who are also peers as their leader, there's always Lord Monckton, as Political Betting demonstrate.