River Ward Update – 7 August

The Conservatives have had a good week in River, regarding their by-election prospects; and I was with them yesterday, delivering leaflets in the Brompton area.

It was very successful, although navigating the Melville Court complex was an exercise in itself, especially as the map of the place is out of date.

That little matter is in hand...

Our team left Melville Court until last, which was just as well as I must have sprained something while going up and down all those steps around the place, and was limping at the end. That swelled up a little, later in the day, and is now going down. I had hoped to go to an entertainment in Brompton this evening, but it now looks as though I shan't be sufficiently recovered in time.

Anyway, the impression I am gaining is that even in the unlikely places for success for a Conservative candidate, the tide has by now turned sufficiently to tip the balance. This tends to suggest that my earlier assessments have been fairly close to what has been happening in recent times, particularly in the Melville Courts of this country.

Labour's traditional "client state" voters have turned away from them, and many will no longer support them at the ballot box. Even if they won't vote for someone else instead, they certainly aren't placing a cross for Labour, and many just won't bother to vote at all.

It will be interesting to see what the turnout figure turns out to be. The figure for when the ward was first formed, in May 2003, was just 29% in the local elections that month. By the time of the next local elections, in May 2007, it had risen to just over 37% which was consistent with the increased turnout in all 22 wards on that occasion.

Now, by-elections tend to have a lower turnout than the all-out local elections, probably because of less media coverage, and this has certainly been true of our two recent by-elections. Rochester South & Horsted had a turnout of over 48% in the 2007 all-outs, but just 41% in the 2008 by-election. Similarly, Luton & Wayfield's turnout in 2007 was a little over 30%, but in the 2009 by-election it was down (just a smidgen, this time) to a little under 30%.

As this by-election is being held during the prime summer holiday month of August, I'd expect turnout to be noticeably down from the 2007 figure, and I am still expecting a Conservative win by a modest but conclusive margin.