Yes, it has started – a bit early, I'd have thought; but Labour members and the media seem intent on having their potential opponents to (presumably) Boris lined up right now. Their nominations close next month, and the winner will be announced this September.
Perhaps it's because the Labour Party leadership contest is somewhat lacklustre that there is a media/publicity vacuum needing to be filled; but whatever the reason, we now have at least three Labour contenders, possibly four.
First it was former MP Oona King, who declared her wish to be considered a couple of days ago. Now we have The Guardian's Dave Hill bringing us the rumour of Peter Mandelson's apparent (though unconfirmed) interest in the job, and Sunny Hundal at Liberal Conspiracy believes that Jon Cruddas is the only person who could beat Boris.
The only trouble with the latter idea is that, like John McDonnell, he clearly hasn't the stomach for any kind of leading rôle, and always bottles it when a real opportunity arises even when he has made an early move. In this case he has, apparently, "expressed an interest"...
Meanwhile, it has been no secret for the past two years that Ken Livingstone wants his old City Hall job back; and that appears to be as strong a desire today as it was just after he lost to Boris some two years ago.
Realistically, it is unlikely that anyone could (or should) unseat Boris should he decide, as originally envisaged, to stand for a second term. Perhaps the 2012 mayoral election might best be viewed by his erstwhile opponents as a rehearsal for the following such election in 2016.
The idea of Peter Mandelson as London Mayor is laughable! He simply doesn't have the necessary popularity.
ReplyDeleteI do like Oona King, but doubt she would seriously threaten the present Mayor.
Ken L. is now seen as yesterday's man. He still attends Mayor's QT sometimes, he was there last time, but he is considered too "dodgy".
Jon Cruddas seems a nice man, but he isn't very well known, and doesn't have the necessary charisma.
I am stunned that Mandy would ever think he could beat Boris, Londoners love Boris and he is hugely popular.
Good assessment of the situation!
ReplyDeleteI had wondered whether Ken L was now back in his customary location at Mayor's Questions (he was absent for a while, which was the last I'd heard) so that is interesting...
The Labour hopes will undoubtedly be pinned on what the outer London boroughs do at the next election, as those were the key to Boris's success two years ago. The inner boroughs tend to vote more for Labour anyway.
It will be an interesting election, as it was last time; though as you rightly conclude, Boris's popularity will make it very difficult to unseat him, especially by one such as Mandelson.