There really is no panic about any of this. The key, as always, is in knowing what all the possible outcomes are, what the consequences of each will (probably or definitely) be, and being prepared for any of them.
The way we are now, there are probably just three foreseeable outcomes in terms of who will be governing this country any time now:
- The Conservatives in some form of coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The final offer has been made, including a referendum on changing our voting system to a form of AV (Alternative Vote). This would be workable, though far from ideal.#
- A so-called rainbow coalition of Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and any others required to make up the numbers to reach an overall majority. This "coalition of the losers" would be an affront to the electorate, almost impossible to make work (it would like trying to herd cats), and is being made on an undeliverable promise of an immediate change (i.e. without a referendum) to the AV voting system, with a later referendum on changing it again, the STV (Single Transferable Vote).
- If both fail, then the Conservatives could offer to go it alone with a minority government. This is something like what my political group did on Medway Council ten years ago, when we formed a very successful minority administration. Yes, we got voted down occasionally, but what we did had so much public support that it would have been political suicide for the opposition members to have opposed most of what we were putting forward. David Cameron could operate on the same basis, daring the other parties to vote down the Queen's Speech and/or the Budget in the weeks to come.
For now, though, the Conservatives should not act precipitately, as some are urging them to do, and need to give the Lib Dems as much time (within reason) as they need to reach a solid decision: deal or no deal? David Cameron and his team have acted the most statesmanlike throughout, and have gained respect from ever more of the voting public as a result.
It's now Tuesday afternoon, and they could be given until the end of this working week (although obviously that shouldn't really be necessary). If the Lib Dems aren't capable of making a decision any time soon, when after all this was the scenario they wanted and were aiming for (a hung parliament) so they should have been ready and geared up from the outset, then this shows them in a bad light and, frankly, unfit to be a part of the governance of the country.
I agree largely with this. A libCon coalition would work to a degree, and would at least supply the majority needed. However, a supply and confidence agreement would suffice just as well, there is no need to see any liberals in cabinet posts.
ReplyDeletejust as workable is the prospect of minority government, as we would be daring the liberals to vote down the government, and I don't think that they have the stomach to do that over a Queens Speech bill or the finance bill. Anything else is survivable.
Despite this, I feel that the markets will be happier with coalition, and there have been mutterings that the pound will soon find itself under attack from speculators (though the bonds went well this morning). We need to get sorted one way or the other quickly.
Yes, the markets could be an issue. They certainly didn't respond well once Labour had entered the coalition stakes, but had been fine until then, post-election.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, it now looks as though we are going to have the answer at any moment, and I think it is going to be my Option 1, which will (as you say) keep the markets happier than would the other options.