Here is the opinion polls graph for the year to date. It clearly shows the "Cleggmania dip" for the two traditional big parties immediately after the first of the Leaders Debates.It also shows what I have predicted ever since, which is a slow but definite recovery in the Conservative voting intention percentage, but Labour scarcely recovering at all.
Also as I predicted, the Lib Dems have slipped back towards a higher position than before the debates, but quite a lot lower than their peak polling performance of two weeks or so ago.
The result is that the Con-Lab lead is now up to typically eight percentage points, fluctuating between 5% and 10% in the latest batch of polls; and the Con-LibDem lead is typically eleven percentage, which it has been in three of the latest four polls, the other being 8%.
With the reported (yesterday) late surge to the Conservatives in the all-important marginal seats, my consistent prediction of a Conservative overall majority of 20 to 30 seats, perhaps higher, seems eminently possible. We shall know in less than three days from now!
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