The Weakest Link/Leader

The one conclusive result from last night's debate, which was watched by around nine million viewers (peaking at just under nine-and-a-half million), was that Gordon Brown is the Weakest Link.

Opinion on other aspects and how the other two party leaders performed varies hugely. Some of this is partisan, some is perceptual, and some based on expectations that either were or were not realised during the programme.

Just to give a flavour of the breadth of opinion: some commenters (actually, quite a few) would have preferred David Cameron to go more on the attack, and also to defend himself and his party against the attacks from the other two.

Other opinion respected the dignified way he did not descend to that level, and was the only one to consistently stop speaking when Alastair Stewart called on one of the others – not always bang on the dot, but he was by far the best-behaved on this count (and others as well). Indeed, Cameron has today said that he "didn't believe in pulling the others down".

A few of the "wise old hands" realised that this first debate, though important, was only the first; and Cameron was (as I mentioned before) "pincered-in" by Brown and Clegg.

Another strategic point picked up by some (myself included) was that the obvious "love in" that Brown aimed at Clegg several times, along with a number of other clues, showed the viewing public just how close those two parties are and hinted strongly at what the newspapers have been suggesting for a few weeks now: a joint Lib/Lab government if the election produced a hung parliament.

It is hardly a secret that Clegg and Cable are after ministerial positions, and the most likely way they could get them is by propping up a minority Labour government, which Brown seemed to be offering. Thus it proves the truism: "vote Lib Dem, get Labour".

Interestingly, as a second strategic point (which I also sussed out during the debate), Labour is obviously losing out in general, and the Lib Dems are taking far more Labour votes than Conservative votes (and, by the way, we are taking from both of them!) so the more Labour voters who defect to the Lib Dems, vote-wise, the better it will be for the blue team.

Cameron would have been well aware of that, so wisely kept himself out of the affair, letting the other two leaders play their game and concentrating on answering the questions, at which he was far and away the best, even if that wasn't immediately recognised after the event.

It ought to be clear to most, by the end of the third one...

Here's an analysis of the participants' body language, from Sky News...



ITN's own transcript of last night's event is now available (PDF file).