Monday, 16 November 2009

Post By-election Poll

Mike Smithson (yes, him again — useful fellow!) wondered, earlier today, whether the media exposure for Labour during the Glasgow North East by-election would give Labour a boost in the opinion polls conducted immediately afterward.

The YouGov poll earlier in the week didn't count, as the polling itself (the so-called "fieldwork") was conducted either mostly or entirely before the result was known.

Tonight's ICM poll for The Guardian, however, was conducted post-election, but doesn't seem to have had more than a nominal positive effect for Labour, and the Conservative lead is still a healthy 13%. (Note that another poll is due out later, from Ipsos MORI). The ICM poll's voting intention figures are:
  • Con — 42%
  • Lab — 29%
  • L D — 19%
  • Oth — 10%
Worse still for Gordon Brown and his party are the additional questions' answers, which show that David cameron is considered by the voting public to be…
"Tougher, more decisive and more internationally respected than Gordon Brown."
Ouch! That's just gotta hurt!

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