Analysing Polly

It has been interesting to see how the (purportedly) leading Left-wing columnists have altered their writing styles in recent times. The much-ridiculed (and with very good reason!) Polly Toynbee is a case in point, and perhaps exemplifies the way such columns will be going during the run-up to the expected General Election.

There are two ways of looking at Polly's recent columns, including the latest. In this, In The Guardian's "Comment is Free (but comments are selectively censored!)" area, all starts well, with some hard facts and a respected psephologist's view on the political landscape, predicting an overall Conservative majority at that election of some 66 seats. Thus far, so good: that is consistent with polls over many months, with only the MPs' expenses issue and the conferences season generating temporary hiccups.

Then Polly goes on to find some unheard-of University bod, and turns back to her more traditional pie-in-the-sky "Labour can win" line. There is a lot of play made on the apparent "softness" of the Conservative vote (which has some validity, but not as much as is suggested, I feel), and to be fair to the Univresity fellow, even Michael Thrasher (of Rallings and Thrasher fame) thinks there could be a hung parliament, though that conclusion does seem rather odd, as David Herdson explains at his linked article.

As for Polly herself, though, this does read a little like clutching at straws, in an attempt to convince readers of something that isn't really all that likely. Read it through, and then see which of the following two interpretations you put on it — or perhaps a completely different one.

• Scenario One: Polly is in panic mode, fearing a Labour defeat at the election, and the resultant adrenaline rush has cleared her brain and brought her down to earth. As the writing progresses, however, Polly gets into the mood of it, the panic recedes as her own words bring back confidence (especially after finding an undoubtedly Lefty university bod to back-up her preferred view), and the column soon reverts to type.

• Scenario Two: Polly's idea is to come across as being strictly factual, realistic and non-partisan. Then, when the reader has got that far by being taken in by that apparent approach, her piece is then carefully structured to draw the now-captive reader down her preferred path.

Ultimately, either of these scenarios (especially the latter, which I personally believe to be the reality) would be intended to attract back Labour waverers, in the hope of saving enough marginal seats to prevent an overall Conservative majority post-election. That must be the task of such writers in the mainstream media from now on. Indeed, her strap-line is intended to invoke fear (of a Conservative Government) — a standard Lefty technique. They rely on generating fear: without it, they are next to nowhere.

What do you think?